Regionals Crystal Ball

OH MY GOODNESS two posts in a row on the same day! And they were posted literally a minute after the other! Madness.

Because I've had such great success picking winners this year (Stanford Invite, Centex), I decided I'd make an even greater douchebag (nowadays I sometimes go by J-Bag, I'm such a big d-bag) of myself by going out on a limb and making some guesses about which teams will be punching their tickets to Boulder, CO this year. Now, before you jump all over my picks, keep in mind I haven't played/seen many of these teams, and that a lot of the time I'm going off RSD hype and score reporter results, and scores aren't completely dependable when it comes to indicating who the better team is. That being said, here goes nothing ...

Out of the Atlantic Coast, I am choosing Wake Forest and North Carolina.
While both are very good teams, Wake Forest looks like the favorite as of right now. I think Georgia might surprise some people, but I'm not sure that they can beat Wake or UNC. Wake and UNC have played each other a few times this season, with Wake Forest winning the rubber match at Carolina Sectionals, 9-4. When they won QCTU, I can honestly say that I had no idea who Wake Forest was. But since then, they've also won Easterns, played at Centex, and won the Carolina Sectionals, and the AC is theirs to lose. North Carolina is a good candidate to take it from them though. They've beaten some really good teams this season (Michigan, Maryland, Wake Forest), but their win against Wake came early in the season. Are they going to be able to figure them out this time around?

Out of the Central, I'm picking Carleton and Wisconsin.
Carleton has played in a lot of really competitive tournaments this spring, and I think that experience will really benefit them and shine through. Even though they've beaten Wisconsin this year at SI, I'm still picking Bella Donna to win the Central. While Wisconsin has struggled a little in the later part of the season, I think that this is when they turn it on. They've been here before, and the cool, level-headed experience of their older players balanced with the ridiculous talent of their younger players will carry them through. To be sure, there are other good teams in this region, but I see these two teams being heads and shoulders above the rest in terms of the level of competition they have gotten to see throughout the spring season, and I do believe your strength of schedule (What is this, the NCAA?) matters, especially come series time.

I'm not really going to go in-depth on the Great Lakes, because, well, there's an obvious bias, but I will say right now, Michigan and Illinois. Holler.

Out of the Metro East, I'm going with Ottawa and Maryland.
Ottawa won Trouble at Vegas, with their two closest games coming against Wisconsin (13-11) and UCLA (14-10), and at the Upstate NY Sectionals, Ottawa straight blanked everyone in attendance. That's just taking care of bidness, bro. This Ottawa team is stacked with names that a lot of people might not know, like Anne Mercier and Alex Benedict, and a lot of these girls have experience with the Canadian Juniors team and the Canadian club scene. Maryland is also going to be a team to watch out for. They are a damn good team, and they have got to be riding a big wave of confidence, having gone undefeated for wins at their past three tournaments (Huck of the Irish, Roll Call, Colonial Sectionals). They haven't yet met up with Ottawa though, and I'm giving Ottawa the advantage here.

I'm really not sure who I want to pick out of New England. At first, I wanted to say that Dartmouth was for suresies a lock. They won Yale Cup, and they have seen a lot of very good competition at Centex and Trouble. They've beaten both Tufts and Northeastern, who I think is their biggest competition at Regionals, but Northeastern very recently beat them at the Metro Boston Sectionals, 15-8. Then that makes me want to say Northeastern, but then they were blown out by Maryland twice at Roll Call, 2-10 and 4-15. Then I want to say Tufts, because they've come close to beating Dartmouth a few times, but they also lost at Metro Boston Sectionals to Northeastern. It's hard to say, but if I really had to pick I'd go with Dartmouth and Northeastern.

Oh my God, the Northwest is fucking stacked. This region is absolutely ridiculous, and as difficult as it is to choose just three teams, I am going with UBC and Washington, for suresies. The third pick is a little more difficult, and it's between Stanford and Oregon. Washington is a lock because they've only had five losses on the year, and they've avenged all but two (a 3-7 loss to UCSB at Stanford, a 6-10 loss to Ottawa at Trouble, and they haven't met up with either team since). They lost a close one to UCLA at Stanford, 12-13, but a few weeks later straight trounced them at Centex, 11-5. Prior to Sectionals, Element lost to UBC twice, and then bounced back and beat them twice at Wash/BC Sectionals, 13-10 and 12-6. That to me indicates that Washington just keeps getting better as the season wears on. Not only that, but they've had a lot of success throughout the season. Including Wash/BC Sectionals, they have been in the finals three of the past four tournaments they have been to. I really just don't see Washington losing any time soon. UBC will also be a lock, with all their ballers. They have only lost to two teams all year -- UCLA and Washington, both teams I expect to be at Nationals. At Centex, one of the most competitive tournaments of the year, UBC practically HULKSMASHED their way to the finals, beating up on quality teams like Wisconsin (11-6), Michigan (13-2), and Pittsburgh (12-6).

Now, like I said, the third spot is a little harder to predict. While Oregon is obviously very talented, it is very difficult for me to ignore the experience of Stanford. I think I expected Stanford to come back the way the Wisconsin men did, to follow their championship season with a flurry of wins, and when they didn't, I wondered, "What happened?" Keep in mind, though, that last season, when Superfly three-peated, Stanford didn't win a tournament until Bay Area Sectionals, and they didn't win Northwest Regionals. In the end, if I have to choose, I'm going with the experience of Stanford over Oregon. You just can't teach experience, and Stanford obviously knows when to turn it on at the right time. Also, I see Western Washington playing an important role in the NW. I don't think they're going to upset anyone, but I do think they will play a lot of these top teams very close, which could tire them out or psyche them out for their next game. I've got a hunch that the 2008 UPA College Champion might come out of the NW, so this region is going to be interesting to watch.

Out of the South, I'm liking Texas. Melee has traveled to every major tournament available this spring: (winning the) Florida Winter Classic, Trouble in Vegas, Texas Throwdown, Stanford Invite, and Centex, and I really think this plays to their advantage. They've played teams like Wisconsin, Oregon, and UBC multiple times this season, and I think that sort of practice against high-level competition will really benefit them. However, I have to say that I'm curious about what happened at the Texas Sectionals. In pool play, Texas smashed A&M 12-3, but in the finals, SkyU beat Melee 10-8. What's the story there?

Finally, I'm calling UCLA and UCSB out of the Southwest. UCLA seems like a pretty obvious choice for me. They've got something like five losses on the season, and they've been to the finals of almost every tournament they've played this season (Pres Day, Stanford Invite, SB Invitational, Trouble, So Cal Sectionals ... the only one they didn't make finals was Centex, where they got knocked out in semis by Washington). They have a bevy of ballers who have been to Nationals before, and other than UCSB, who gave them a close game in the finals of So Cal Sectionals, I don't see any other SW team really pushing UCLA. I'm calling UCSB because they've gotten a lot of quality wins this season, including wins over Wisconsin (13-10 at Stanford), North Carolina (13-7 at Stanford), Oregon (9-7 at Trouble, 12-11 at Stanford), Washington (7-3 at Stanford), and Texas (13-8 at Centex). They also gave UBC a very close game at Trouble (12-13), and they've played regional foes Colorado a few times already and have beaten them each time. I'm not sure they could beat UCLA, but I like them in the two spot for the trip to Natties.


Whew. Now let's see how I do this time around ...
Good luck, everyone!